Preseason Rankings
Texas San Antonio
Conference USA
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#121
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace77.3#27
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#81
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#171
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 1.7% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 22.7% 12.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.4% 5.6% 0.7%
Average Seed 12.2 11.1 12.6
.500 or above 75.3% 91.9% 72.2%
.500 or above in Conference 78.4% 89.2% 76.5%
Conference Champion 17.7% 28.1% 15.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.1% 2.6%
First Four0.9% 2.9% 0.5%
First Round13.3% 21.4% 11.8%
Second Round3.0% 6.3% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.9% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Away) - 15.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 47 - 9
Quad 48 - 216 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 38   @ Oklahoma L 74-85 15%    
  Nov 08, 2019 207   Southern Illinois W 77-71 72%    
  Nov 09, 2019 201   Oakland W 83-77 70%    
  Nov 10, 2019 240   Delaware W 78-70 76%    
  Nov 18, 2019 34   @ Utah St. L 74-85 16%    
  Nov 30, 2019 277   Prairie View W 88-75 87%    
  Dec 03, 2019 291   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 78-65 88%    
  Dec 07, 2019 156   @ Texas St. L 72-73 49%    
  Dec 18, 2019 74   Oregon St. L 74-78 37%    
  Dec 21, 2019 187   Illinois St. W 80-72 75%    
  Jan 02, 2020 163   @ Florida Atlantic W 77-76 51%    
  Jan 04, 2020 185   @ Florida International W 93-91 57%    
  Jan 09, 2020 116   Louisiana Tech W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 11, 2020 238   Southern Miss W 79-69 81%    
  Jan 15, 2020 169   @ UTEP W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 18, 2020 169   UTEP W 79-72 71%    
  Jan 23, 2020 152   @ North Texas L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 25, 2020 229   @ Rice W 85-81 63%    
  Jan 30, 2020 140   UAB W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 01, 2020 174   Middle Tennessee W 80-73 72%    
  Feb 06, 2020 139   @ Old Dominion L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 08, 2020 276   @ Charlotte W 76-69 71%    
  Feb 13, 2020 188   Marshall W 92-84 75%    
  Feb 15, 2020 76   Western Kentucky L 78-79 47%    
Projected Record 14 - 10 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 4.6 6.0 4.3 1.4 17.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.2 5.8 1.7 0.1 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.6 5.3 1.4 0.1 11.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 5.7 1.7 0.1 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 5.3 2.5 0.1 9.0 5th
6th 0.2 3.8 3.7 0.3 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 4.3 1.0 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.4 3.2 1.9 0.1 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 2.7 0.3 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.6 1.0 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.5 0.1 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.0 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.5 6.3 8.5 11.7 13.4 14.2 13.6 11.9 7.8 4.5 1.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
13-1 96.9% 4.3    3.7 0.7 0.0
12-2 77.2% 6.0    3.5 2.2 0.3 0.0
11-3 38.8% 4.6    1.3 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
10-4 9.6% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-5 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 17.7% 17.7 9.9 5.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 1.4% 73.1% 52.2% 20.9% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 43.7%
13-1 4.5% 47.1% 36.9% 10.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.4 16.1%
12-2 7.8% 34.6% 30.0% 4.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.1 6.5%
11-3 11.9% 26.4% 25.5% 1.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.8 1.3%
10-4 13.6% 16.6% 16.3% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 11.4 0.4%
9-5 14.2% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 12.9 0.0%
8-6 13.4% 5.0% 5.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 12.7
7-7 11.7% 2.6% 2.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.4
6-8 8.5% 2.2% 2.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.4
5-9 6.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3
4-10 3.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 3.5
3-11 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.0
2-12 0.9% 0.9
1-13 0.2% 0.2
0-14 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 13.7% 12.5% 1.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.5 4.0 3.5 2.2 0.8 0.2 86.3 1.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.3 1.0 31.1 31.1 6.8 30.1